Even as India’s much delayed census for this decade has yet to take off, a UN agency has projected country’s population at 1.6 billion continuing to be the most populous in the world.

The UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report says that India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.

This means that, on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration.

Despite the slowing birth rate, India’s youth population remains significant, with 24 per cent in the age bracket of 0-14, 17 per cent in 10-19, and 26 per cent in 10-24.

The country’s 68 per cent of the population is of working age (15-64), providing a potential demographic dividend, if matched by adequate employment and policy support.

The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at seven per cent, a figure that is expected to rise in the coming decades as life expectancy improves. As of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

According to the UN estimates, India’s population at present stands at 1,463.9 million.

India is now the world’s most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people – a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins to fall, around 40 years from now, the report said.

Behind these numbers are the stories of millions of couples who decided to start or expand their families, as well as the stories of women who had few choices about whether, when or how often they became pregnant, the report said.

In 1960, when India’s population was about 436 million, the average woman had nearly six children.

Back then, women had less control over their bodies and lives than they do today. Fewer than 1 in 4 used some form of contraception, and fewer than 1 in 2 attended primary school (World Bank Data, 2020), the report said.

But in the coming decades, educational attainment increased, access to reproductive healthcare improved, and more women gained a voice in the decisions that affected their lives. The average woman in India now has about two children.

While women in India, and every other country, have more rights and choices today than their mothers or grandmothers did, they still have a long way to go before they are empowered to have the number of children they want, if any, when they want them.

The UN report placed India in a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change, with population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.

“India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates – from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,” said Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.

“This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning million more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups.

“The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to show how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together,” she said.