The as Lok Sabha debates delimitation and women reservation over the weekend, the AIMIM MP and firebrand Muslims leader Assadudin Owaisi picked up an example from Jammu and Kashmir to accuse ruling BJP of gerrymandering as its final main objective.

Owaisi said since the Delimitation is appointed by the political executive, the members often oblige the ruling party’s demands. He then went on cite example of Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha  constituency, the first trans Pir Panjal territorial entity carved by the Delimitation Commission of 2022 under Justice Ranjana Desai.

First trans Pir Panjal political unit in 178-year history of modern Jammu and Kashmir since its formation in 1846, the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency is spread over three districts of Kashmir valley and two of Jammu division. Owaisi pointed out that the two sides of the Pir Panjal packaged into one constituency have barely anything common -the land, the terrain, culture, language, everything is different. There is not even round the year road connectivity.

It has been said by many political leaders that Anantnag-Rajouri constituency is a project aligned more to BJP-RSS ideological outlook than political representation and accessibility.

Part of August 5 project  

On August 5, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government de-operationalised the contentious Article 370 thus withdrawing the special status Jammu and Kashmir had enjoyed since a 1950 constitutional commitment. For many, this was a high value political event culminating a seven-decade long campaign steered by the Bhartiya Janta Party, including in its previous avatar, and its ideological mentor the Rashtriya Swayemsevak Sangh. However, in reality, this was the beginning of a sustained process towards removing the fatiguing status quo of as many years and establishing an entirely and all encompassing new political and social landscape.

Coinciding with Article 370 abrogation, the Reorganisation Act passed by Parliament laid foundations for constructing a ‘new Jammu and Kashmir’, repealing hundreds of laws and corresponding realities of the old political and social order. One key element in the Reorganisation Act was a provision for fresh delimitation of Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies before next elections are held.

Headed by Justice Ranjana Prasad Desai, the Delimitation Commission narrowed the gap between Kashmir and Jammu divisions from seven Assembly seats to four. At the beginning, in 1951, this gap was of 13 seats. The Jammu region, since the 1980’s, has alleged discrimination in allocation of seats even as valley’s population is around 1.5 million higher.  

Members to the first three Lok Sabhas -1952, 1957 and 1962 -were sent through nominations as no delimitation was conflicted due to conflict between state and the central election laws. The first ever delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir carried out in 1966 had allocated three seats to the Kashmir valley and two to Jammu. In the first direct election in 1967, Brigadier Ghansara Singh, the last Governor Gilgit, and Inder Jeet Malhotra won the Udhampur and Jammu seat, respectively, as Congress candidates. In Kashmir, the Baramulla and Anantnag seats were won by Syed Ahmed Agha and Mohammad Shafi Qureshi, respectively, of the Congress. While Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, contesting under his own version of revived National Conference, won the Srinagar seat.

Jammu and Kashmir began to see some semblance of competitive electoral politics only by the 1977 elections after Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah had revived the original National Conference following Indira-Sheikh Accord of 1975. In the Lok Sabha elections that year, predating the Assembly polls, the NC won the central and north Kashmir seat, the south Kashmir and Udhampur went to the Congress and Jammu-Poonch was won by an independent candidate.  

In subsequent 10 Lok Sabha elections, the three valley seats have largely remained a domain of the regional parties: 1980, 1984, 1989, 1999, 2009 and 2019 -all three seats to the National Conference; 2014 -all three seats to PDP. 1991 Lok Sabha elections didn’t happen in Jammu and Kashmir due to militancy and targeted killings of political workers. In 1996, an election boycotted by NC, the Congress won the central and north Kashmir seat while the Janta Dal took the south. The only other instance of a valley seat having gone to a national party was 1998 when Mufti Mohammad Sayeed won the Anantnag seat for Congress.

As clearly opposed to the valley trends, the two Jammu seats have always been a bastion of national parties: of the 10 elections since 1980, the Congress and BJP have taken Udhampur seat five times each. Similarly, the Jammu-Poonch seat has gone to the Congress six times and to BJP four times. A small exception was 2002 by-election when a National Conference candidate won the Jammu seat.

Separated by the Pir Panjal range, the above trend, also closely followed in the Assembly elections, exactly explains the political divide in Jammu and Kashmir which looks like split along the regional line but actually has a lot to do with the religion and its inspired ideologies, including separatism and ultranationalism. The process unleashed by the August 5, 2019, events seek to fundamentally change this pattern. The Delimitation Commission, by way of creating a trans Pir Panjal constituency, provides an architecture to build the new politics.    

Influence of mountains

“Geography is a primary factor in shaping history, politics and cultural identity”, argues Robert D. Kaplan in ‘Revenge of Geography’. In understanding the geographical layout, we unearth insights into the local political issues and social structures. The Pir Panjal range has since the time immemorial been a separator of not only the climate but also social and political trends and the sentiments to its north and south.

The Anantnag-Rajouri constituency brings in three districts from south Kashmir -Anantnag, Pulwama and Shopian and two from the south of Pir Panjal in Jammu division -Rajouri and Poonch. Within the respective divisions of Kashmir and Jammu, these districts have been known for their unique political and social behaviour. Besides the geography, politics, economy and climate, it is also the language and culture that sets the two sides apart.

From politics to economy, art and literature to mythology and folklore, rivers have shaped cultures and societies throughout the history. Kashmir’s most important river, the Jhelum, originates from the south. South has always held profound impact on political life of Kashmir from being home to major intellectual movements to political campaigns.

As BJP could be seen since 2014, the Congress was even more eager to expand its foothold in Kashmir since the mid 1960s. Anantnag district made it possible by providing top leadership and the votes. What has been marketed as first ever regional alternative to National Conference, the grand old party of 1930s, the Peoples Democratic Party also draws its main strength from the south Kashmir.  

Militancy in Kashmir has gone through several phases over three decades. However, the militant-separatist violence came to be known as organic, locally driven and locally owned only after the south Kashmir got involved. Likes of Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa brought spotlight to the south.

The two districts from south of Pir Panjal -Rajouri and Poonch -represent and entirely different picture. Contrary to Samuel P. Huntington’s argument in his thesis ‘Clash of Civilisations’, unique cultural, limguistic and religious identities in Rajouri and Poonch have proved contributed to political and social moderation rather than being source of conflict. Different political ideas and ideologies have coexisted peacefully. People have voted for all parties but rarely factored in by major players in Kashmir or Jammu.

After decades of seeing the Pir Panjal divide as static and unchangeable force, the strategic thinking realised that this mountain range may actually be dynamic and deeply influential in the political conflict transformation. It was in this backdrop that after decades of suspicion, the restoration of sixteenth century Mughal Road was ordered to be recommissioned in 2005 and was through for informal traffic in just two years -perhaps the fastest road project ever in Jammu and Kashmir.  

The post 1947 inter-regional communication network in Jammu and Kashmir is an artificial construct that doesn’t rest on the history and culture. So is the political construction. The road and upcoming rail network traversing the tough mountains is an everyday battle against geography. Same is the case with politics. Practiced by Congress over the decades and accelerated by BJP in recent years, the historical view from New Delhi is for absolute and uninterrupted control over the politics of Jammu and Kashmir. This is best explained by nearly 15-year-long direct central rule through Raj Bhawan and decades of governments in alliances, coalition and through proxies.

The view from Kashmir, where politics has traditionally been constructed on exclusive and unique identity, is exactly the reverse. The rise of national political parties, which compete against regional parties as a natural political process in other parts of the countries, is seen as an aggression, an encroachment of the local political space.

Post 2019 objectives

On the BJP’s August 2019 move, everyone has spoken in endorsement -the Parliament has spoken, political parties have spoken, the media has spoken and so has the Supreme Court. However, a verdict from people has yet to come. Now, the BJP and the main local parties -the NC and the PDP-are locked in an eyeball-to-eyeball situation to turn the people’s verdict in their favour. In Jammu’s two ‘absolute’ Lok Sabha seats, the dominant mood is evident -it is in sync with the BJP’s viewpoint or close to the Congress. In both cases, it is not significantly against the August 2019 move. In the north and central Kashmir, the political infrastructure is present in such a way that the BJP can’t claim and endorsement for its policies. The local parties will keep on enjoying that benefit of doubt for a longer while.